Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 07/09, 21:15

Prediction: Estoril vs Arouca

Team pages: Estoril · Arouca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Estoril1.57

Arouca1.23

1X2

44% 28% 29%

Estoril Draw Arouca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Estoril 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDLLL

Arouca 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Estoril 2–1–3 Arouca (6 last)

Arouca3-2Estoril
Estoril4-3Arouca
Arouca1-1Estoril
Estoril4-1Arouca
Estoril1-2Arouca
Arouca4-3Estoril

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estoril 1418 · Arouca 1547

	Estoril	Draw	Arouca
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	43%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arouca (rating 1418 vs 1547).
H2H favours Arouca: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estoril	Arouca
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 11:48

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.13 → 2.19▲	Pinn 2.19
X	3.42 → 3.39▼	Pinn 3.39
2	3.47 → 3.36▼	Pinn 3.36

See the full journey (6)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51	2.13	3.42	3.47
01:50 +1’	2.04▼	3.44▲	3.70▲
03:46	2.09▲	3.42▼	3.59▼
07:35	2.11▲	3.41▼	3.54▼
10:46 +1’	2.12▲	3.41	3.51▼
11:48 +1’	2.19▲	3.39▼	3.36▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 2–1–3 Arouca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	3-2 HT 2-2	Estoril
07/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	4-3 HT 2-2	Arouca
16/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-1 HT 1-0	Estoril
26/10/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	4-1 HT 2-1	Arouca
20/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	1-2 HT 1-2	Arouca
13/08/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	4-3 HT 1-1	Estoril

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
9	Braga	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
15	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estoril	Arouca
Alverca	1-1 D	1-2 L
Braga	1-1 D	0-1 L
Moreirense	0-1 L	4-0 W
FC Porto	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Estoril (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estoril

LLLDDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
22/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
07/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
10/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
12/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-3	1	4	L

Arouca

LWLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
24/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Arouca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estoril win (44%). Probabilities: Estoril 44%, draw 28%, Arouca 29%.

How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Arouca?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Estoril 1.57 · Arouca 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.