Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 04/09, 21:15
Prediction: FC Porto vs Moreirense
Team pages: FC Porto · Moreirense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
FC Porto2.12
Moreirense0.68
1X2
FC Porto
Draw
Moreirense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Porto
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Moreirense
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Porto
5–1
Moreirense
(6 last)
- FC Porto3-0Moreirense
- Moreirense1-2FC Porto
- FC Porto3-1Moreirense
- Moreirense0-3FC Porto
- Moreirense2-1FC Porto
- FC Porto2-0Moreirense
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1628 vs 1468).
- H2H favours FC Porto: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Porto | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.8 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 5–0–1 Moreirense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Porto | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Moreirense |
| 27/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Porto |
| 02/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Porto | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Moreirense |
| 21/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC Porto |
| 24/11/24 Portugal Cup | Moreirense | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Porto |
| 31/10/24 Portugal League Cup | FC Porto | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Moreirense |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Maritimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Estrela | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 8 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 14 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Porto | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 2-0 W | 0-4 L |
| AVS | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Estrela | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Tondela | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Estoril | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Porto (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Porto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 23/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 12/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
Moreirense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 04/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Moreirense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Porto win (70%). Probabilities: FC Porto 70%, draw 20%, Moreirense 10%.
How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Moreirense?
The model expects 2.8 goals (FC Porto 2.12 · Moreirense 0.68), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Moreirense?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.