Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 12/09, 16:30
Prediction: Nacional vs Alverca
Team pages: Nacional · Alverca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Nacional1.28
Alverca0.84
1X2
Nacional
Draw
Alverca
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Alverca
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional
1–1
Alverca
(2 last)
- Nacional1-0Alverca
- Alverca1-0Nacional
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.7 | 2.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional 1–0–1 Alverca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alverca |
| 07/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Alverca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sporting | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Estrela | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Estoril | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Santa Clara | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Alverca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional vs Alverca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional win (45%). Probabilities: Nacional 45%, draw 31%, Alverca 23%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Nacional 1.28 · Alverca 0.84), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.