Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Santa Clara vs Rio Ave

Team pages: Santa Clara · Rio Ave

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Santa Clara1.49

Rio Ave0.85

1X2

51% 28% 20%

Santa Clara Draw Rio Ave

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Clara 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLDWWD

Rio Ave 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Santa Clara 2–2–2 Rio Ave (6 last)

Santa Clara0-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Santa Clara
Rio Ave1-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara1-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-2Santa Clara
Santa Clara0-2Rio Ave

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Clara 1541 · Rio Ave 1473

	Santa Clara	Draw	Rio Ave
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Clara (rating 1541 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.49 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +11’	1.80	3.30	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +1’	1.73	3.54	4.88
11:36 +2’	1.72▼	3.63▲	5.09▲
12:32	1.75▲	3.57▼	4.95▼
13:34	1.80▲	3.49▼	4.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Clara 2–2–2 Rio Ave

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-2 HT 0-0	Rio Ave
30/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 1-1	Santa Clara
18/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 1-0	Santa Clara
07/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	1-0 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
27/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Rio Ave	1-2 HT 1-2	Santa Clara
17/03/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-2 HT 0-0	Rio Ave

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
6	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
12	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
13	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
14	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Clara	Rio Ave
FC Porto	0-1 L	0-2 L
Casa Pia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Clara (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Clara

LDWDWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
26/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
11/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Rio Ave

WDLDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
17/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Clara win (51%). Probabilities: Santa Clara 51%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 20%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Santa Clara 1.49 · Rio Ave 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.