Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 20/09, 21:30

Prediction: FC Porto vs Benfica

Team pages: FC Porto · Benfica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

FC Porto1.34

Benfica1.3

1X2

37% 29% 35%

FC Porto Draw Benfica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Benfica 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Porto 2–2–2 Benfica (6 last)

Benfica2-2FC Porto
FC Porto1-0Benfica
FC Porto0-0Benfica
FC Porto1-4Benfica
Benfica4-1FC Porto
FC Porto5-0Benfica

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1595 vs 1643).
High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Porto	Benfica
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.1	4.1 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.99

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 04:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.94 → 2.71▼	Pinn 2.71
X	3.53 → 3.44▼	Pinn 3.44
2	2.35 → 2.57▲	Pinn 2.57

See the full journey (5)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +47’	2.94	3.53	2.35
00:40 +45’	2.84▼	3.51▼	2.42▲
01:38 +47’	2.79▼	3.50▼	2.46▲
02:58 +23’	2.79	3.49▼	2.47▲
04:05 +18’	2.71▼	3.44▼	2.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 2–2–2 Benfica

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	2-2 HT 0-2	FC Porto
14/01/26 Portugal Cup	FC Porto	1-0 HT 1-0	Benfica
05/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	0-0 HT 0-0	Benfica
06/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	1-4 HT 0-2	Benfica
10/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	4-1 HT 1-1	FC Porto
03/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	5-0 HT 2-0	Benfica

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Sporting	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11	9	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	Braga	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
12	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5	7	4
13	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
14	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
15	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2	11	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2	7	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto	Benfica
Casa Pia	4-1 W	7-0 W
Moreirense	2-1 W	4-0 W
Academico Viseu	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Benfica (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

WWLWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	4-1	10	5	W
04/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
29/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-0	1	0	W
23/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
15/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
16/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
02/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	6	6	W

Benfica

WWDWDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-1	14	5	W
09/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	7	6	W
05/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
31/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	9	1	W
17/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	7-0	3	3	W
09/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	10	6	D
16/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	9	5	W
11/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	8	5	D
25/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	9	4	W
19/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Benfica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Porto win (37%). Probabilities: FC Porto 37%, draw 29%, Benfica 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Benfica?

The model expects 2.64 goals (FC Porto 1.34 · Benfica 1.3), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.