Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 09/10, 19:45

Prediction: Moreirense vs Gil Vicente

Team pages: Moreirense · Gil Vicente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Moreirense0.99

Gil Vicente1.27

1X2

28% 30% 42%

Moreirense Draw Gil Vicente

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Moreirense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWLLWD

Gil Vicente 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDLLD

Head-to-head

Moreirense 2–4 Gil Vicente (6 last)

Moreirense1-2Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente2-0Moreirense
Gil Vicente0-1Moreirense
Gil Vicente1-0Moreirense
Moreirense3-2Gil Vicente
Moreirense0-1Gil Vicente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreirense 1469 · Gil Vicente 1496

	Moreirense	Draw	Gil Vicente
Our model	27%	31%	42%
Market	28%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gil Vicente: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.60 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +4’	3.30	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:49 +358’	3.60	3.10	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreirense 2–0–4 Gil Vicente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-2 HT 0-1	Gil Vicente
29/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	2-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
06/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	0-1 HT 0-0	Moreirense
12/01/25 Portugal Cup	Gil Vicente	1-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
08/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	3-2 HT 0-1	Gil Vicente
20/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	0-1 HT 0-1	Gil Vicente

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
3	Sporting	7	4	3	0	17	8	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Maritimo	3-1 W	1-1 D
Benfica	0-4 L	1-3 L
Casa Pia	1-0 W	2-0 W
Arouca	0-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gil Vicente (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moreirense

WLDDLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
14/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
09/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
04/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
30/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
02/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	3-2	1	8	W

Gil Vicente

WDLLWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-3	0	5	L
06/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
09/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
16/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
03/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gil Vicente win (42%). Probabilities: Moreirense 28%, draw 30%, Gil Vicente 42%.

How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Moreirense 0.99 · Gil Vicente 1.27), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.