Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 24/10, 16:30

Prediction: Estrela vs Casa Pia

Team pages: Estrela · Casa Pia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Estrela2.24

Casa Pia1.42

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Estrela Draw Casa Pia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWDWDLL

Casa Pia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Estrela 4–2 Casa Pia (6 last)

Estrela4-0Casa Pia
Casa Pia3-5Estrela
Casa Pia1-0Estrela
Estrela0-1Casa Pia
Estrela3-1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-1Estrela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela 1542 · Casa Pia 1405

	Estrela	Draw	Casa Pia
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrela (rating 1542 vs 1405).
H2H favours Estrela: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrela	Casa Pia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	0.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.75
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.04 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +2’	1.75	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +477’	1.67	3.82	5.15
20:20 +13’	1.69▲	3.75▼	5.04▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 4–0–2 Casa Pia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	4-0 HT 3-0	Casa Pia
01/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	3-5 HT 1-2	Estrela
09/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-0 HT 1-0	Estrela
31/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-1 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
08/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	3-1 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
08/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-1 HT 0-0	Estrela

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
7	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
8	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
9	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela

DDDDWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	5	5	D
10/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Casa Pia

WDLLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
20/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
06/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrela win (54%). Probabilities: Estrela 54%, draw 24%, Casa Pia 22%.

How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Estrela 2.24 · Casa Pia 1.42), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.