Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Alverca vs Casa Pia

Team pages: Alverca · Casa Pia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Alverca1.68

Casa Pia0.89

1X2

55% 25% 19%

Alverca Draw Casa Pia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alverca 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Casa Pia 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alverca 2–1–0 Casa Pia (3 last)

Alverca3-1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-2Alverca
Alverca0-0Casa Pia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alverca 1503 · Casa Pia 1443

	Alverca	Draw	Casa Pia
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alverca (rating 1503 vs 1443).
H2H favours Alverca: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alverca	Casa Pia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +3’	1.67	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 2–1–0 Casa Pia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	3-1 HT 0-1	Casa Pia
29/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-2 HT 0-0	Alverca
20/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Alverca	0-0 HT 0-0	Casa Pia

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
10	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	14	14	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alverca	Casa Pia
Santa Clara	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sporting	1-3 L	0-2 L
Estrela	2-2 D	2-0 W
FC Porto	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alverca (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alverca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/10	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
19/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	0	3	W
05/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Casa Pia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
24/10	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/10	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
20/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
06/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alverca win (55%). Probabilities: Alverca 55%, draw 25%, Casa Pia 19%.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Alverca 1.68 · Casa Pia 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.