Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/11, 21:45

Prediction: Famalicao vs Arouca

Team pages: Famalicao · Arouca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Famalicao1.19

Arouca1.09

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Famalicao Draw Arouca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Famalicao 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDDWLW

Arouca 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

Famalicao 2–3–1 Arouca (6 last)

Famalicao0-0Arouca
Famalicao1-0Arouca
Arouca1-1Famalicao
Arouca1-2Famalicao
Famalicao0-0Arouca
Arouca3-2Famalicao

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Famalicao: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Famalicao	Arouca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.4	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.89

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.01 → 1.98▼	Pinn 1.98
X	3.42 → 3.51▲	Pinn 3.51
2	3.70 → 3.87▲	Pinn 3.87

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:09 +2’	2.01	3.42	3.70
22:47 +25’	1.98▼	3.51▲	3.87▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Famalicao 2–3–1 Arouca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Club Friendly List	Famalicao	0-0 HT 0-0	Arouca
06/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	1-0 HT 0-0	Arouca
05/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-1 HT 0-0	Famalicao
05/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-2 HT 0-1	Famalicao
09/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	0-0 HT 0-0	Arouca
23/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	3-2 HT 2-1	Famalicao

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
9	Braga	9	3	2	4	9	11	11
10	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14	11	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Famalicao	Arouca
Alverca	1-4 L	1-0 W
Nacional	4-0 W	1-0 W
Sporting	1-1 D	2-2 D
Estrela	2-2 D	1-0 W
Santa Clara	0-1 L	1-2 L
Maritimo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Estoril	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Arouca (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Famalicao

WDLLDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	4-0	2	3	W
12/10	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
13/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
23/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Arouca

WWLWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
24/10	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	2-2	2	9	D
13/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Famalicao vs Arouca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Famalicao win (37%). Probabilities: Famalicao 37%, draw 31%, Arouca 32%.

How many goals are expected in Famalicao vs Arouca?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Famalicao 1.19 · Arouca 1.09), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.