Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 23/10, 19:45

Prediction: Chaves vs Vizela

Team pages: Chaves · Vizela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Chaves1.23

Vizela1.21

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Chaves Draw Vizela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chaves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLWLD

Vizela 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWWDL

Head-to-head

Chaves 4–2 Vizela (6 last)

Vizela3-2Chaves
Chaves1-0Vizela
Chaves1-2Vizela
Vizela0-1Chaves
Vizela0-1Chaves
Chaves2-1Vizela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chaves 1463 · Vizela 1503

	Chaves	Draw	Vizela
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vizela (rating 1463 vs 1503).
H2H favours Chaves: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chaves	Vizela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.21
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.71 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:51 +164’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +187’	2.63	3.21	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chaves 4–0–2 Vizela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Vizela	3-2 HT 1-0	Chaves
04/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	1-0 HT 0-0	Vizela
05/04/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	1-2 HT 0-2	Vizela
08/11/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Vizela	0-1 HT 0-0	Chaves
15/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Vizela	0-1 HT 0-1	Chaves
01/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Chaves	2-1 HT 1-1	Vizela

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	7	5	2	0	12	5	17
2	Sporting B	7	5	0	2	10	6	15
3	SC Farense	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
4	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
5	Benfica B	7	4	1	2	8	5	13
6	Academica	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
7	Tondela	7	4	0	3	8	6	12
8	Vizela	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
9	UD Leiria	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Leixoes	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
11	Portimonense	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
12	AVS	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
13	FC Porto B	7	2	1	4	6	14	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	7	1	3	3	5	7	6
15	SCU Torreense	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Amarante	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
17	Chaves	7	1	2	4	6	14	5
18	Feirense	7	0	1	6	2	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chaves	Vizela
Felgueiras 1932	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sporting B	0-1 L	0-2 L
Portimonense	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chaves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chaves

LLWLLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
04/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
13/09	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
23/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
08/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
15/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
09/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
03/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-2	2-3	8	4	L

Vizela

DWLWLDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/09	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-2	4	10	D
06/09	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
29/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
22/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
16/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
09/08	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
09/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chaves vs Vizela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chaves win (36%). Probabilities: Chaves 36%, draw 29%, Vizela 35%.

How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Vizela?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Chaves 1.23 · Vizela 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vizela?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.