Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: Lusitania Lourosa vs SC Farense

Team pages: Lusitania Lourosa · SC Farense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Lusitania Lourosa1.31

SC Farense1.31

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Lusitania Lourosa Draw SC Farense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lusitania Lourosa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWDD

SC Farense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLDWWL

Head-to-head

Lusitania Lourosa 0–2 SC Farense (2 last)

SC Farense2-1Lusitania Lourosa
Lusitania Lourosa1-2SC Farense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lusitania Lourosa 1564 · SC Farense 1537

	Lusitania Lourosa	Draw	SC Farense
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Farense: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lusitania Lourosa	SC Farense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.52 → 2.67▲	Pinn 2.67
X	3.17 → 3.17	Pinn 3.17
2	2.85 → 2.71▼	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:33 +169’	2.52	3.17	2.85
12:06 +11’	2.80▲	3.17	2.58▼
22:11 +13’	2.67▼	3.17	2.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lusitania Lourosa 0–0–2 SC Farense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	2-1 HT 1-0	Lusitania Lourosa
04/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Lusitania Lourosa	1-2 HT 1-2	SC Farense

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	8	5	3	0	14	7	18
2	Sporting B	8	6	0	2	13	6	18
3	Penafiel	8	5	1	2	18	8	16
4	Academica	8	5	0	3	14	10	15
5	SC Farense	8	4	2	2	14	10	14
6	Benfica B	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
7	AVS	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	Tondela	8	4	0	4	9	8	12
9	Vizela	8	3	2	3	8	8	11
10	UD Leiria	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
11	Leixoes	8	3	1	4	9	12	10
12	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	6	10	10
13	SCU Torreense	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
14	Chaves	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
15	FC Porto B	8	2	2	4	7	15	8
16	Felgueiras 1932	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
17	Amarante	8	1	2	5	6	11	5
18	Feirense	8	0	2	6	2	10	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lusitania Lourosa	SC Farense
Felgueiras 1932	2-2 D	1-1 D
Chaves	1-1 D	4-0 W
Sporting B	2-1 W	1-2 L
AVS	2-1 W	0-0 D
SCU Torreense	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Porto B	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lusitania Lourosa

LLWWDWWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
11/10	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
14/09	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
07/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
29/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
22/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
17/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	1	6	L
09/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-2	5	5	L

SC Farense

DLWWDLDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-3	1-4	8	6	L
11/10	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
04/10	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
13/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
30/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
24/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
09/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
17/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
09/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lusitania Lourosa vs SC Farense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lusitania Lourosa win (35%). Probabilities: Lusitania Lourosa 35%, draw 29%, SC Farense 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lusitania Lourosa vs SC Farense?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Lusitania Lourosa 1.31 · SC Farense 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lusitania Lourosa vs SC Farense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.