Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 31/10, 19:00

Prediction: Benfica B vs Chaves

Team pages: Benfica B · Chaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Benfica B1.27

Chaves1.12

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Benfica B Draw Chaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Benfica B 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWWD

Chaves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWLDW

Head-to-head

Benfica B 4–2–0 Chaves (6 last)

Benfica B1-0Chaves
Chaves1-1Benfica B
Chaves1-2Benfica B
Benfica B1-0Chaves
Chaves1-1Benfica B
Benfica B3-1Chaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Benfica B 1522 · Chaves 1483

	Benfica B	Draw	Chaves
Our model	38%	30%	31%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Benfica B: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Benfica B	Chaves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.42
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:49 +26’	2.30	3.30	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:42 +184’	2.39	3.42	2.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica B 4–2–0 Chaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	1-0 HT 0-0	Chaves
10/08/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	1-1 HT 1-1	Benfica B
28/02/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	1-2 HT 1-0	Benfica B
06/10/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	1-0 HT 0-0	Chaves
25/02/22 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	1-1 HT 0-0	Benfica B
03/10/21 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	3-1 HT 0-0	Chaves

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	8	5	3	0	14	7	18
2	Sporting B	8	6	0	2	13	6	18
3	Penafiel	8	5	1	2	18	8	16
4	Academica	8	5	0	3	14	10	15
5	SC Farense	8	4	2	2	14	10	14
6	Benfica B	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
7	AVS	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	Tondela	8	4	0	4	9	8	12
9	Vizela	8	3	2	3	8	8	11
10	UD Leiria	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
11	Leixoes	8	3	1	4	9	12	10
12	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	6	10	10
13	SCU Torreense	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
14	Chaves	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
15	FC Porto B	8	2	2	4	7	15	8
16	Felgueiras 1932	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
17	Amarante	8	1	2	5	6	11	5
18	Feirense	8	0	2	6	2	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Benfica B	Chaves
Feirense	0-0 D	1-0 W
Felgueiras 1932	1-0 W	1-2 L
Academica	3-0 W	1-4 L
Leixoes	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Benfica B (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Benfica B

LLWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/10	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
11/09	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
30/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
21/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
15/08	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
10/08	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
15/05	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
09/05	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-2	7	6	L

Chaves

LWLLDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
11/10	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
04/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
13/09	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
23/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
08/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
15/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
09/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Benfica B vs Chaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica B win (39%). Probabilities: Benfica B 39%, draw 29%, Chaves 32%.

How many goals are expected in Benfica B vs Chaves?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Benfica B 1.27 · Chaves 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Benfica B vs Chaves?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.