Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 25/10, 16:30

Prediction: FC Porto B vs UD Leiria

Team pages: FC Porto B · UD Leiria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

FC Porto B1.15

UD Leiria1.67

1X2

25% 27% 48%

FC Porto B Draw UD Leiria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto B 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLLDW

UD Leiria 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

FC Porto B 1–4–1 UD Leiria (6 last)

UD Leiria2-2FC Porto B
FC Porto B1-2UD Leiria
UD Leiria0-0FC Porto B
FC Porto B1-1UD Leiria
UD Leiria1-1FC Porto B
FC Porto B2-1UD Leiria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto B 1501 · UD Leiria 1499

	FC Porto B	Draw	UD Leiria
Our model	25%	26%	48%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Porto B	UD Leiria
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.30

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 12:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.80
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.52 ★
2	1.95 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +3’	3.40	3.25	1.95
16:21 +3’	3.30▼	3.30▲	1.95
12:26 +9’	3.75▲	3.40▲	1.80▼
22:47 +5’	3.50▼	3.40	1.90▲
11:20 +4’	3.70▲	3.20▼	1.85▼
12:14 +13’	3.60▼	3.30▲	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +359’	3.46	3.56	2.02
11:26 +69’	3.66▲	3.63▲	1.94▼
00:18 +4’	3.69▲	3.58▼	1.94
02:51 +39’	3.77▲	3.61▲	1.91▼
10:45 +39’	3.80▲	3.52▼	1.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto B 1–4–1 UD Leiria

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	UD Leiria	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Porto B
14/09/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	FC Porto B	1-2 HT 1-1	UD Leiria
09/02/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	UD Leiria	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Porto B
01/09/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	FC Porto B	1-1 HT 1-1	UD Leiria
03/02/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	UD Leiria	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Porto B
27/08/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	FC Porto B	2-1 HT 0-0	UD Leiria

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	7	5	2	0	12	5	17
2	Sporting B	7	5	0	2	10	6	15
3	SC Farense	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
4	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
5	Benfica B	7	4	1	2	8	5	13
6	Academica	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
7	Tondela	7	4	0	3	8	6	12
8	Vizela	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
9	UD Leiria	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Leixoes	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
11	Portimonense	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
12	AVS	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
13	FC Porto B	7	2	1	4	6	14	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	7	1	3	3	5	7	6
15	SCU Torreense	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Amarante	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
17	Chaves	7	1	2	4	6	14	5
18	Feirense	7	0	1	6	2	10	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto B	UD Leiria
Leixoes	2-1 W	4-2 W
Vizela	2-2 D	0-1 L
Tondela	0-3 L	2-0 W
Feirense	1-0 W	2-2 D
SC Farense	1-3 L	0-3 L
Benfica B	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto B (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto B

WWWLLWLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	1	8	W
14/09	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-2	2	10	D
05/09	Tondela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
30/08	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
24/08	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
16/08	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
10/08	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
15/05	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
09/05	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
04/05	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	1	10	W

UD Leiria

LLDLLWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
13/09	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
06/09	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
28/08	Tondela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
22/08	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	4-2	5	6	W
15/08	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
09/08	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
17/05	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	9	3	D
09/05	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/05	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-3	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto B vs UD Leiria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UD Leiria win (48%). Probabilities: FC Porto B 25%, draw 27%, UD Leiria 48%.

How many goals are expected in FC Porto B vs UD Leiria?

The model expects 2.82 goals (FC Porto B 1.15 · UD Leiria 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Porto B vs UD Leiria?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.