Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: SC Farense vs Penafiel

Team pages: SC Farense · Penafiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

SC Farense1.38

Penafiel0.85

1X2

48% 29% 23%

SC Farense Draw Penafiel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Farense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLDWW

Penafiel 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWWWWL

Head-to-head

SC Farense 3–3–0 Penafiel (6 last)

Penafiel1-1SC Farense
SC Farense0-0Penafiel
SC Farense2-1Penafiel
Penafiel0-2SC Farense
Penafiel1-3SC Farense
SC Farense2-2Penafiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Farense 1567 · Penafiel 1518

	SC Farense	Draw	Penafiel
Our model	48%	30%	22%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Farense (rating 1567 vs 1518).
H2H favours SC Farense: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Farense	Penafiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.97 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.39
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +36’	1.83	3.20	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +308’	1.97	3.39	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Farense 3–3–0 Penafiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	1-1 HT 0-0	SC Farense
26/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	0-0 HT 0-0	Penafiel
22/04/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	2-1 HT 0-0	Penafiel
05/11/22 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	0-2 HT 0-0	SC Farense
19/03/22 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	1-3 HT 1-2	SC Farense
01/11/21 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	2-2 HT 1-2	Penafiel

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	7	5	2	0	12	5	17
2	Sporting B	7	5	0	2	10	6	15
3	SC Farense	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
4	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
5	Benfica B	7	4	1	2	8	5	13
6	Academica	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
7	Tondela	7	4	0	3	8	6	12
8	Vizela	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
9	UD Leiria	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Leixoes	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
11	Portimonense	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
12	AVS	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
13	FC Porto B	7	2	1	4	6	14	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	7	1	3	3	5	7	6
15	SCU Torreense	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Amarante	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
17	Chaves	7	1	2	4	6	14	5
18	Feirense	7	0	1	6	2	10	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Farense	Penafiel
AVS	0-0 D	1-2 L
Sporting B	1-2 L	2-0 W
Felgueiras 1932	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Porto B	3-1 W	3-0 W
SCU Torreense	2-1 W	2-2 D
Portimonense	0-1 L	0-1 L
Pacos Ferreira	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Farense

WDLWWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
04/10	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
13/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
30/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
24/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
09/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
17/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
09/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	6	7	W

Penafiel

LWLLDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
12/09	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-1	2	9	W
30/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
23/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-2	2	8	D
08/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
17/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
09/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-3	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Farense vs Penafiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Farense win (48%). Probabilities: SC Farense 48%, draw 29%, Penafiel 23%.

How many goals are expected in SC Farense vs Penafiel?

The model expects 2.23 goals (SC Farense 1.38 · Penafiel 0.85), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Farense vs Penafiel?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.