Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 02/11, 19:00

Prediction: Penafiel vs Feirense

Team pages: Penafiel · Feirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Penafiel1.42

Feirense0.93

1X2

48% 29% 24%

Penafiel Draw Feirense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Penafiel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWWLW

Feirense 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Penafiel 1–5 Feirense (6 last)

Feirense1-0Penafiel
Penafiel1-2Feirense
Penafiel1-2Feirense
Feirense3-0Penafiel
Penafiel2-1Feirense
Feirense2-0Penafiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penafiel 1540 · Feirense 1418

	Penafiel	Draw	Feirense
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penafiel (rating 1540 vs 1418).
H2H favours Feirense: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penafiel	Feirense
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	0.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	2.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.93
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.39 ★
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +9’	1.90	3.25	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +29’	1.93	3.39	3.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penafiel 1–0–5 Feirense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	1-0 HT 1-0	Penafiel
19/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	1-2 HT 1-2	Feirense
19/04/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	1-2 HT 1-2	Feirense
07/12/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	3-0 HT 1-0	Penafiel
29/01/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	2-1 HT 2-0	Feirense
20/08/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	2-0 HT 0-0	Penafiel

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	8	5	3	0	14	7	18
2	Sporting B	8	6	0	2	13	6	18
3	Penafiel	8	5	1	2	18	8	16
4	Academica	8	5	0	3	14	10	15
5	SC Farense	8	4	2	2	14	10	14
6	Benfica B	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
7	AVS	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	Tondela	8	4	0	4	9	8	12
9	Vizela	8	3	2	3	8	8	11
10	UD Leiria	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
11	Leixoes	8	3	1	4	9	12	10
12	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	6	10	10
13	SCU Torreense	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
14	Chaves	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
15	FC Porto B	8	2	2	4	7	15	8
16	Felgueiras 1932	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
17	Amarante	8	1	2	5	6	11	5
18	Feirense	8	0	2	6	2	10	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penafiel	Feirense
SC Farense	4-1 W	1-2 L
AVS	1-2 L	0-2 L
Felgueiras 1932	2-1 W	0-0 D
Academica	4-1 W	0-1 L
FC Porto B	3-0 W	0-1 L
Sporting B	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Penafiel (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penafiel

WLLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
09/10	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
12/09	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-1	2	9	W
30/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
23/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-2	2	8	D
08/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
17/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
09/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W

Feirense

LDDLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
11/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
13/09	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
05/09	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
24/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
14/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
09/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
09/05	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penafiel vs Feirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penafiel win (48%). Probabilities: Penafiel 48%, draw 29%, Feirense 24%.

How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Feirense?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Penafiel 1.42 · Feirense 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penafiel vs Feirense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.