Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: Feirense vs Benfica B

Team pages: Feirense · Benfica B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Feirense1.06

Benfica B1.05

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Feirense Draw Benfica B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Feirense 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLLLLL

Benfica B 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Feirense 2–4 Benfica B (6 last)

Benfica B3-0Feirense
Feirense0-2Benfica B
Benfica B0-1Feirense
Feirense2-3Benfica B
Feirense1-2Benfica B
Benfica B2-3Feirense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Feirense 1411 · Benfica B 1543

	Feirense	Draw	Benfica B
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica B (rating 1411 vs 1543).
H2H favours Benfica B: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Feirense	Benfica B
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.61
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.30 ★
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.68

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +542’	2.52	3.28	2.77
14:48 +1’	2.61▲	3.30▲	2.68▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Feirense 2–0–4 Benfica B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	3-0 HT 1-0	Feirense
25/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	0-2 HT 0-0	Benfica B
07/02/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	0-1 HT 0-0	Feirense
01/09/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	2-3 HT 1-2	Benfica B
02/03/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Feirense	1-2 HT 1-0	Benfica B
08/10/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	2-3 HT 1-3	Feirense

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	7	5	2	0	12	5	17
2	Sporting B	7	5	0	2	10	6	15
3	SC Farense	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
4	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
5	Benfica B	7	4	1	2	8	5	13
6	Academica	7	4	0	3	10	10	12
7	Tondela	7	4	0	3	8	6	12
8	Vizela	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
9	UD Leiria	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Leixoes	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
11	Portimonense	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
12	AVS	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
13	FC Porto B	7	2	1	4	6	14	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	7	1	3	3	5	7	6
15	SCU Torreense	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Amarante	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
17	Chaves	7	1	2	4	6	14	5
18	Feirense	7	0	1	6	2	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Feirense	Benfica B
Sporting B	1-3 L	1-0 W
FC Porto B	0-1 L	0-2 L
Academica	0-1 L	3-0 W
Felgueiras 1932	0-0 D	1-0 W
UD Leiria	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Benfica B (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Feirense

WLDDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
13/09	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
05/09	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
24/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
14/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
09/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
09/05	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
03/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	2-1	6	11	W

Benfica B

WLLWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
11/09	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
30/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
21/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
15/08	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
10/08	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
15/05	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
09/05	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
01/05	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Feirense vs Benfica B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Feirense win (35%). Probabilities: Feirense 35%, draw 31%, Benfica B 34%.

How many goals are expected in Feirense vs Benfica B?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Feirense 1.06 · Benfica B 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Feirense vs Benfica B?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.