Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 04/09, 20:30
Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Cologne
Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Cologne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.02Total
VfB Stuttgart2.65
Cologne1.37
1X2
VfB Stuttgart
Draw
Cologne
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
VfB Stuttgart
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Cologne
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VfB Stuttgart
5–1–0
Cologne
(6 last)
- VfB Stuttgart3-1Cologne
- Cologne1-2VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart1-1Cologne
- Cologne0-2VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart3-0Cologne
- Cologne2-4VfB Stuttgart
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart 1586 · Cologne 1546
| VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VfB Stuttgart (rating 1586 vs 1546).
- H2H favours VfB Stuttgart: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VfB Stuttgart | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.1 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart 5–1–0 Cologne
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Cologne |
| 28/09/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 1-2 HT 1-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 24/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cologne |
| 30/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 0-2 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 18/02/23 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cologne |
| 19/11/22 Elite Club Friendlies | Cologne | 2-4 HT 0-4 | VfB Stuttgart |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cologne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Schalke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Hamburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Cologne |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 1-5 L | 1-5 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 3-3 D | 3-2 W |
| Werder Bremen | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Hamburg | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 12/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Cologne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 14/03 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart vs Cologne?
According to our model, the most likely result is a VfB Stuttgart win (64%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 64%, draw 20%, Cologne 17%.
How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Cologne?
The model expects 4.02 goals (VfB Stuttgart 2.65 · Cologne 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Cologne?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.