Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 13/09, 15:30
Prediction: RB Leipzig vs Hamburg
Team pages: RB Leipzig · Hamburg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.48Total
RB Leipzig2.4
Hamburg1.08
1X2
RB Leipzig
Draw
Hamburg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
RB Leipzig
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Hamburg
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
RB Leipzig
5–1–0
Hamburg
(6 last)
- Hamburg1-2RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig2-1Hamburg
- RB Leipzig4-0Hamburg
- Hamburg1-3RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-1Hamburg
- Hamburg0-2RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · RB Leipzig 1578 · Hamburg 1465
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RB Leipzig (rating 1578 vs 1465).
- H2H favours RB Leipzig: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RB Leipzig | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RB Leipzig 5–1–0 Hamburg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 1-2 HT 1-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 18/10/22 Germany DFB Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Hamburg |
| 23/04/19 Germany DFB Pokal | Hamburg | 1-3 HT 1-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 27/01/18 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Hamburg |
| 08/09/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 0-2 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Mainz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Cologne | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Schalke | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| SC Freiburg | 1-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 5-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RB Leipzig vs Hamburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RB Leipzig win (65%). Probabilities: RB Leipzig 65%, draw 20%, Hamburg 14%.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Hamburg?
The model expects 3.48 goals (RB Leipzig 2.4 · Hamburg 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Hamburg?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.