Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 12/09, 15:30

Prediction: SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach

Team pages: SC Freiburg · Borussia M'gladbach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

SC Freiburg2.05

Borussia M'gladbach1.26

1X2

54% 23% 22%

SC Freiburg Draw Borussia M'gladbach

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Freiburg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWWW

Borussia M'gladbach 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWLWLL

Head-to-head

SC Freiburg 4–2–0 Borussia M'gladbach (6 last)

SC Freiburg2-1Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach0-0SC Freiburg
Borussia M'gladbach1-2SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg3-1Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach0-3SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg3-3Borussia M'gladbach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Freiburg 1605 · Borussia M'gladbach 1598

	SC Freiburg	Draw	Borussia M'gladbach
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Freiburg: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Freiburg	Borussia M'gladbach
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +2’	1.73	3.90	4.10
13:27 +6’	1.70▼	3.90	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Freiburg 4–2–0 Borussia M'gladbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	2-1 HT 1-0	Borussia M'gladbach
05/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Freiburg
12/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-2 HT 1-1	SC Freiburg
30/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	3-1 HT 1-0	Borussia M'gladbach
30/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	0-3 HT 0-1	SC Freiburg
04/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	3-3 HT 1-3	Borussia M'gladbach

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Borussia Dortmund	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
4	Mainz	2	1	1	0	5	0	4
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	6	3	3
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
8	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	VfB Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
11	Cologne	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
12	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
13	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Schalke	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
15	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	3	7	1
16	TSG Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
17	Borussia M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
18	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Freiburg	Borussia M'gladbach
RB Leipzig	4-1 W	0-3 L
Wolfsburg	1-1 D	0-0 D
Borussia Dortmund	0-4 L	1-0 W
Heidenheim	2-1 W	2-2 D
Mainz	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SC Freiburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Freiburg

WLWWLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
30/08	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
16/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-1	1	1	W
10/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
03/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	0-4	0	1	L
19/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
12/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/04	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/03	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-1	2	2	W

Borussia M'gladbach

DDLDDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-4	13	4	L
29/08	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
16/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	2	10	W
09/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
03/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
11/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
04/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
21/03	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	3-3	3	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Freiburg win (54%). Probabilities: SC Freiburg 54%, draw 23%, Borussia M'gladbach 22%.

How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model expects 3.31 goals (SC Freiburg 2.05 · Borussia M'gladbach 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.