Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 12/09, 15:30
Prediction: Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Team pages: Mainz · Eintracht Frankfurt
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
Mainz2.04
Eintracht Frankfurt1.65
1X2
Mainz
Draw
Eintracht Frankfurt
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Mainz
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Eintracht Frankfurt
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mainz
2–2–2
Eintracht Frankfurt
(6 last)
- Mainz2-1Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-0Mainz
- Mainz1-1Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-3Mainz
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-0Mainz
- Mainz1-1Eintracht Frankfurt
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mainz 1625 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1568
| Mainz | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mainz (rating 1625 vs 1568).
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mainz | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mainz 2–2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 09/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 04/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 21/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Mainz |
| 26/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 27/08/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Mainz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Cologne | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Schalke | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mainz | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Union Berlin | 1-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mainz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Eintracht Frankfurt
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/03 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mainz win (46%). Probabilities: Mainz 46%, draw 24%, Eintracht Frankfurt 30%.
How many goals are expected in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Mainz 2.04 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.65), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.