Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 12/09, 15:30

Prediction: Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

Team pages: Augsburg · Bayer Leverkusen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Augsburg1.46

Bayer Leverkusen2.28

1X2

23% 22% 55%

Augsburg Draw Bayer Leverkusen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Augsburg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDWWLW

Bayer Leverkusen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Augsburg 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen (6 last)

Bayer Leverkusen1-2Augsburg
Augsburg2-0Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen2-0Augsburg
Augsburg0-2Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen2-1Augsburg
Augsburg0-1Bayer Leverkusen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Augsburg 1557 · Bayer Leverkusen 1596

	Augsburg	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
Our model	23%	21%	55%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	3.2 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.19 ★
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +12’	4.10	4.10	1.70
10:59 +2’	4.10	4.00▼	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +127’	4.09	4.19	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Augsburg 2–0–4 Bayer Leverkusen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	1-2 HT 1-1	Augsburg
06/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	2-0 HT 2-0	Bayer Leverkusen
26/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	2-0 HT 2-0	Augsburg
14/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	0-2 HT 0-2	Bayer Leverkusen
18/05/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	2-1 HT 2-0	Augsburg
13/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	0-1 HT 0-0	Bayer Leverkusen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Borussia Dortmund	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
4	Mainz	2	1	1	0	5	0	4
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	6	3	3
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
8	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	VfB Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
11	Cologne	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
12	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
13	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Schalke	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
15	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	3	7	1
16	TSG Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
17	Borussia M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
18	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin	0-4 L	4-0 W
Hamburg	1-1 D	1-1 D
VfB Stuttgart	2-5 L	1-3 L
Borussia Dortmund	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Augsburg

LLDDWDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	11	2	W
16/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	4	L
09/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
02/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/04	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
18/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
22/03	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	2-5	2	4	L
14/03	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-2	2	0	L

Bayer Leverkusen

DWWLWWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
29/08	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
16/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
02/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
25/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
11/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-3	6-3	12	4	W
21/03	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-3	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayer Leverkusen win (55%). Probabilities: Augsburg 23%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen 55%.

How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Augsburg 1.46 · Bayer Leverkusen 2.28), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.