Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 12/09, 15:30
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Team pages: TSG Hoffenheim · VfB Stuttgart
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.13Total
TSG Hoffenheim2.12
VfB Stuttgart2.02
1X2
TSG Hoffenheim
Draw
VfB Stuttgart
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
TSG Hoffenheim
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
VfB Stuttgart
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
TSG Hoffenheim
1–4–1
VfB Stuttgart
(6 last)
- TSG Hoffenheim3-3VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart0-0TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim1-1VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart1-1TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim0-3VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart2-3TSG Hoffenheim
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · TSG Hoffenheim 1529 · VfB Stuttgart 1580
| TSG Hoffenheim | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VfB Stuttgart (rating 1529 vs 1580).
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.4 | 2.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.5 | 3.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · TSG Hoffenheim 1–4–1 VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | TSG Hoffenheim | 3-3 HT 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 HT 0-0 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 23/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | TSG Hoffenheim | 1-1 HT 0-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 06/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 HT 0-1 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 16/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I | TSG Hoffenheim | 0-3 HT 0-2 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 28/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 2-3 HT 0-2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Mainz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Cologne | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Schalke | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Cologne | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Werder Bremen | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Hamburg | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Augsburg | 2-2 D | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: VfB Stuttgart (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TSG Hoffenheim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 04/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/03 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 12/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
According to our model, the most likely result is a TSG Hoffenheim win (40%). Probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim 40%, draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart 36%.
How many goals are expected in TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model expects 4.13 goals (TSG Hoffenheim 2.12 · VfB Stuttgart 2.02), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.