Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 12/09, 18:30
Prediction: Cologne vs Werder Bremen
Team pages: Cologne · Werder Bremen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Cologne1.91
Werder Bremen1.42
1X2
Cologne
Draw
Werder Bremen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Cologne
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Werder Bremen
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cologne
2–2–2
Werder Bremen
(6 last)
- Cologne3-1Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen1-1Cologne
- Cologne0-1Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen2-1Cologne
- Werder Bremen1-1Cologne
- Cologne7-1Werder Bremen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cologne 1544 · Werder Bremen 1538
| Cologne | Draw | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cologne | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.5 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5 | 1.5 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cologne 2–2–2 Werder Bremen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Werder Bremen |
| 29/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cologne |
| 16/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Werder Bremen |
| 23/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Cologne |
| 20/05/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cologne |
| 21/01/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 7-1 HT 5-1 | Werder Bremen |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Mainz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Cologne | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Schalke | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cologne | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cologne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 10 | D |
Werder Bremen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cologne vs Werder Bremen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cologne win (48%). Probabilities: Cologne 48%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 27%.
How many goals are expected in Cologne vs Werder Bremen?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Cologne 1.91 · Werder Bremen 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cologne vs Werder Bremen?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.