Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 05/09, 15:30

Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

Team pages: TSG Hoffenheim · Borussia Dortmund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

TSG Hoffenheim1.55

Borussia Dortmund1.77

1X2

33% 25% 42%

TSG Hoffenheim Draw Borussia Dortmund

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

TSG Hoffenheim 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Borussia Dortmund 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

TSG Hoffenheim 2–1–3 Borussia Dortmund (6 last)

TSG Hoffenheim2-1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund2-0TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim2-3Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund1-1TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund2-3TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund1-0TSG Hoffenheim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSG Hoffenheim 1549 · Borussia Dortmund 1563

	TSG Hoffenheim	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Borussia Dortmund: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSG Hoffenheim	Borussia Dortmund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.1	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.80

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.93 ★
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.40 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.24

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +4’	2.55	3.75	2.40
18:16 +2’	2.80▲	3.80▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +3’	2.93	3.79	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSG Hoffenheim 2–1–3 Borussia Dortmund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	2-1 HT 1-0	Borussia Dortmund
07/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	2-0 HT 1-0	TSG Hoffenheim
26/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	2-3 HT 0-1	Borussia Dortmund
15/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	1-1 HT 0-0	TSG Hoffenheim
25/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	2-3 HT 2-1	TSG Hoffenheim
01/11/23 Germany DFB Pokal	Borussia Dortmund	1-0 HT 1-0	TSG Hoffenheim

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
2	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Cologne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
6	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
8	Mainz	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Schalke	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Bayer Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	TSG Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
16	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Borussia M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
18	VfB Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSG Hoffenheim	Borussia Dortmund
Borussia M'gladbach	0-4 L	0-1 L
Werder Bremen	1-0 W	2-0 W
VfB Stuttgart	3-3 D	2-0 W
Hamburg	2-1 W	2-0 W
Augsburg	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Borussia Dortmund (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSG Hoffenheim

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	7	2	L
16/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	10	L
09/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-3	4	5	D
25/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
20/03	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-4	0-5	3	2	L
14/03	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	16	3	D

Borussia Dortmund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
08/05	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
03/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/04	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	4-0	5	1	W
18/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
04/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
21/03	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	3-2	11	4	W
14/03	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-0	12	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Borussia Dortmund win (42%). Probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim 33%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 42%.

How many goals are expected in TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model expects 3.32 goals (TSG Hoffenheim 1.55 · Borussia Dortmund 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.