Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 05/09, 15:30

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · Union Berlin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Bayer Leverkusen2.58

Union Berlin1.36

1X2

62% 20% 17%

Bayer Leverkusen Draw Union Berlin

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bayer Leverkusen 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWLDL

Union Berlin 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDWWD

Head-to-head

Bayer Leverkusen 4–1–1 Union Berlin (6 last)

Union Berlin1-0Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen2-0Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen0-0Union Berlin
Union Berlin1-2Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin0-1Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen4-0Union Berlin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bayer Leverkusen 1596 · Union Berlin 1486

	Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Union Berlin
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayer Leverkusen (rating 1596 vs 1486).
H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.6	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.46 ★
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.88
2	5.75 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +4’	1.48	4.50	5.75
05:16 +2’	1.50▲	4.33▼	5.50▼
18:16 +2’	1.42▼	4.75▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +3’	1.46	4.88	5.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayer Leverkusen 4–1–1 Union Berlin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	1-0 HT 1-0	Bayer Leverkusen
04/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	2-0 HT 1-0	Union Berlin
12/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Berlin
30/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	1-2 HT 1-1	Bayer Leverkusen
06/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	0-1 HT 0-1	Bayer Leverkusen
12/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	4-0 HT 1-0	Union Berlin

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
2	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Cologne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
6	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
8	Mainz	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Schalke	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Bayer Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	TSG Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
16	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Borussia M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
18	VfB Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
RB Leipzig	4-1 W	1-3 L
Cologne	2-1 W	2-2 D
Augsburg	1-2 L	4-0 W
Wolfsburg	6-3 W	1-2 L
Heidenheim	3-3 D	1-3 L
Bayern Munich	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bayer Leverkusen

DDWWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
16/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
02/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
25/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
11/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-3	6-3	12	4	W
21/03	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-3	5	8	D
14/03	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	4	8	D

Union Berlin

WLDLLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-3	5	6	D
16/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
10/05	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/05	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
24/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
18/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
11/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
05/04	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
21/03	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
15/03	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayer Leverkusen win (62%). Probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62%, draw 20%, Union Berlin 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Bayer Leverkusen 2.58 · Union Berlin 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.