Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 06/09, 15:30
Prediction: Hamburg vs Mainz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Hamburg1.53
Mainz1.64
1X2
Hamburg
Draw
Mainz
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburg
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Mainz
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburg
1–3–2
Mainz
(6 last)
- Mainz1-1Hamburg
- Hamburg4-0Mainz
- Hamburg0-0Mainz
- Mainz3-2Hamburg
- Hamburg0-0Mainz
- Mainz3-1Hamburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburg 1503 · Mainz 1628
| Hamburg | Draw | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mainz (rating 1503 vs 1628).
- H2H favours Mainz: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburg 1–3–2 Mainz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 05/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Mainz |
| 03/03/18 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 14/10/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Hamburg |
| 07/05/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 17/12/16 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Hamburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Cologne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Hamburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Borussia M'gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Werder Bremen | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mainz (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Mainz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburg vs Mainz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mainz win (39%). Probabilities: Hamburg 35%, draw 26%, Mainz 39%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburg vs Mainz?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Hamburg 1.53 · Mainz 1.64), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Mainz?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.