Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 05/09, 15:30
Prediction: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Team pages: Werder Bremen · RB Leipzig
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Werder Bremen1.32
RB Leipzig1.72
1X2
Werder Bremen
Draw
RB Leipzig
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Werder Bremen
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
RB Leipzig
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Werder Bremen
0–3–3
RB Leipzig
(6 last)
- Werder Bremen1-2RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig2-0Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig4-2Werder Bremen
- RB Leipzig1-1Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen1-1RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Werder Bremen 1539 · RB Leipzig 1582
| Werder Bremen | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RB Leipzig (rating 1539 vs 1582).
- H2H favours RB Leipzig: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 1.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.5 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Werder Bremen 0–3–3 RB Leipzig
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 1-2 HT 0-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 23/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Werder Bremen |
| 10/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 12/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Werder Bremen |
| 11/05/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Werder Bremen |
| 19/12/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cologne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Schalke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Hamburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Union Berlin | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Werder Bremen (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Werder Bremen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 08/03 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
According to our model, the most likely result is an RB Leipzig win (46%). Probabilities: Werder Bremen 29%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 46%.
How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Werder Bremen 1.32 · RB Leipzig 1.72), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.