Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 19/09, 15:30

Prediction: Borussia M'gladbach vs Mainz

Team pages: Borussia M'gladbach · Mainz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Borussia M'gladbach1.55

Mainz1.8

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Borussia M'gladbach Draw Mainz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Borussia M'gladbach 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Mainz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Borussia M'gladbach 1–4–1 Mainz (6 last)

Borussia M'gladbach1-1Mainz
Mainz0-1Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach1-3Mainz
Mainz1-1Borussia M'gladbach
Mainz1-1Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach2-2Mainz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Borussia M'gladbach 1577 · Mainz 1570

	Borussia M'gladbach	Draw	Mainz
Our model	33%	25%	43%
Market	32%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Borussia M'gladbach	Mainz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.00 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.76
2	2.25 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +14’	2.80	3.60	2.25
02:23 +2’	2.90▲	3.70▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +165’	2.97	3.75	2.24
11:54 +98’	3.00▲	3.76▲	2.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Borussia M'gladbach 1–4–1 Mainz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-1 HT 1-0	Mainz
05/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	0-1 HT 0-0	Borussia M'gladbach
07/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-3 HT 0-1	Mainz
25/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	1-1 HT 0-0	Borussia M'gladbach
02/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	1-1 HT 1-0	Borussia M'gladbach
06/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	2-2 HT 1-1	Mainz

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	3	0	0	10	1	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
3	Augsburg	3	2	1	0	9	3	7
4	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
7	Mainz	3	1	1	1	6	3	4
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
9	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
10	Schalke	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
11	Cologne	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
12	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
13	TSG Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	6	7	3
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	0	4	1
16	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
17	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	0	7	0
18	Borussia M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Borussia M'gladbach	Mainz
SC Freiburg	0-5 L	0-1 L
TSG Hoffenheim	4-0 W	2-1 W
Heidenheim	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mainz (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Borussia M'gladbach

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
05/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-4	13	4	L
29/08	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
16/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	2	10	W
09/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
03/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
11/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
04/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-2	2	4	D

Mainz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
06/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
29/08	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
16/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
03/05	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
25/04	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	3-4	4	3	L
19/04	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/04	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
04/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Borussia M'gladbach vs Mainz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mainz win (43%). Probabilities: Borussia M'gladbach 32%, draw 25%, Mainz 43%.

How many goals are expected in Borussia M'gladbach vs Mainz?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Borussia M'gladbach 1.55 · Mainz 1.8), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Borussia M'gladbach vs Mainz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.