Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 19/09, 18:30
Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Borussia Dortmund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.67Total
VfB Stuttgart1.94
Borussia Dortmund1.73
1X2
VfB Stuttgart
Draw
Borussia Dortmund
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
VfB Stuttgart
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Borussia Dortmund
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VfB Stuttgart
4–1–1
Borussia Dortmund
(6 last)
- VfB Stuttgart0-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund3-3VfB Stuttgart
- Borussia Dortmund1-2VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart5-1Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund0-1VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart2-0Borussia Dortmund
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart 1564 · Borussia Dortmund 1589
| VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 23% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours VfB Stuttgart: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.1 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.8 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart 4–1–1 Borussia Dortmund
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 22/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 3-3 HT 2-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 08/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 1-2 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 22/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 06/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 0-1 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 06/12/23 Germany DFB Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Mainz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Schalke | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Cologne | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Werder Bremen | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Hamburg | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Borussia Dortmund (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 12/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Borussia Dortmund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
According to our model, the most likely result is a VfB Stuttgart win (43%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 43%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 34%.
How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 3.67 goals (VfB Stuttgart 1.94 · Borussia Dortmund 1.73), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.