Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 19/09, 15:30
Prediction: Hamburg vs Cologne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Hamburg1.66
Cologne1.75
1X2
Hamburg
Draw
Cologne
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburg
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cologne
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburg
2–2–2
Cologne
(6 last)
- Hamburg1-1Cologne
- Cologne4-1Hamburg
- Hamburg1-0Cologne
- Cologne1-2Hamburg
- Cologne4-0Hamburg
- Cologne0-0Hamburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburg 1469 · Cologne 1550
| Hamburg | Draw | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cologne (rating 1469 vs 1550).
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburg | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.4 | 1.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.4 | 2.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburg 2–2–2 Cologne
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cologne |
| 02/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 18/01/25 Germany Bundesliga II | Hamburg | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cologne |
| 02/08/24 Germany Bundesliga II | Cologne | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Hamburg |
| 07/01/23 Europe Friendlies | Cologne | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Hamburg |
| 18/01/22 Germany DFB Pokal | Cologne | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hamburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Mainz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Schalke | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Cologne | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburg | Cologne |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Werder Bremen | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cologne (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 21/03 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Cologne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 04/09 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburg vs Cologne?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cologne win (39%). Probabilities: Hamburg 36%, draw 25%, Cologne 39%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburg vs Cologne?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Hamburg 1.66 · Cologne 1.75), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Cologne?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.