Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 20/09, 15:30
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · RB Leipzig
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.68Total
Bayer Leverkusen2.09
RB Leipzig1.59
1X2
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
RB Leipzig
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayer Leverkusen
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
RB Leipzig
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayer Leverkusen
4–1–1
RB Leipzig
(6 last)
- Bayer Leverkusen4-1RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-3Bayer Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig2-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen2-3RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig2-3Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen3-2RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayer Leverkusen 1595 · RB Leipzig 1566
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | 48% | 23% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 8.2 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayer Leverkusen 4–1–1 RB Leipzig
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 4-1 HT 2-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 25/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 31/08/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-3 HT 2-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 20/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 19/08/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 3-2 HT 2-1 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Mainz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Schalke | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Cologne | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Borussia M'gladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayer Leverkusen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-3 | 6-3 | 12 | 4 | W |
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayer Leverkusen win (48%). Probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 48%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 29%.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Bayer Leverkusen 2.09 · RB Leipzig 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.