Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 19/09, 15:30

Prediction: Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

Team pages: Werder Bremen · Augsburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Werder Bremen1.71

Augsburg1.6

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Werder Bremen Draw Augsburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Werder Bremen 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLLWD

Augsburg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Werder Bremen 2–2–2 Augsburg (6 last)

Werder Bremen1-3Augsburg
Augsburg0-0Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0-2Augsburg
Augsburg2-2Werder Bremen
Augsburg0-3Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen2-0Augsburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Werder Bremen 1540 · Augsburg 1585

	Werder Bremen	Draw	Augsburg
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Augsburg (rating 1540 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Werder Bremen	Augsburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.78

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +5’	2.38	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +165’	2.30	3.92	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Werder Bremen 2–2–2 Augsburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	1-3 HT 0-2	Augsburg
20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	0-0 HT 0-0	Werder Bremen
19/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-2 HT 0-2	Augsburg
24/08/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	2-2 HT 2-1	Werder Bremen
27/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	0-3 HT 0-0	Werder Bremen
09/12/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	2-0 HT 1-0	Augsburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	3	0	0	10	1	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
3	Augsburg	3	2	1	0	9	3	7
4	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
7	Mainz	3	1	1	1	6	3	4
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
9	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
10	Schalke	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
11	Cologne	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
12	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
13	TSG Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	6	7	3
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	0	4	1
16	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
17	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	0	7	0
18	Borussia M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Werder Bremen	Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim	0-1 L	2-2 D
Hamburg	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Werder Bremen

LLWDLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/08	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
16/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
09/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
26/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
18/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
12/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
04/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	1	3	L

Augsburg

DDWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	4-1	4	2	W
30/08	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	11	2	W
16/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	4	L
09/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
02/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/04	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
18/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Werder Bremen win (40%). Probabilities: Werder Bremen 40%, draw 25%, Augsburg 35%.

How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Werder Bremen 1.71 · Augsburg 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.