Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 18/09, 20:30
Prediction: Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
Team pages: Bayern Munich · Union Berlin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.54Total
Bayern Munich3.27
Union Berlin1.27
1X2
Bayern Munich
Draw
Union Berlin
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayern Munich
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Union Berlin
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayern Munich
4–2–0
Union Berlin
(6 last)
- Bayern Munich4-0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin2-3Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin2-2Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin1-1Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin1-5Bayern Munich
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1701 · Union Berlin 1431
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.54 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1701 vs 1431).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayern Munich | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/0/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 8 | 1.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 4–2–0 Union Berlin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Union Berlin |
| 03/12/25 Germany DFB Pokal | Union Berlin | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Bayern Munich |
| 08/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 15/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 02/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Union Berlin |
| 20/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Bayern Munich |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Mainz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Schalke | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Cologne | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Hamburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayern Munich | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Cologne | 5-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Wolfsburg | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Heidenheim | 3-3 D | 1-3 L |
| Mainz | 4-3 W | 3-1 W |
| St Pauli | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
Union Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich win (81%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich 81%, draw 11%, Union Berlin 8%.
How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model expects 4.54 goals (Bayern Munich 3.27 · Union Berlin 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.