Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 17/10, 18:30
Prediction: Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
Team pages: Bayern Munich · RB Leipzig
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.56Total
Bayern Munich3.28
RB Leipzig1.28
1X2
Bayern Munich
Draw
RB Leipzig
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayern Munich
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
RB Leipzig
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayern Munich
5–1–0
RB Leipzig
(6 last)
- Bayern Munich3-1RB Leipzig
- Bayern Munich2-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-5Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich6-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig3-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich5-1RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1668 · RB Leipzig 1526
| Bayern Munich | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1668 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.3 | 2.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 8.3 | 2.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 5–1–0 RB Leipzig
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 Telekom Cup - 45 Mins Play | Bayern Munich | 3-1 HT 1-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 11/02/26 Germany DFB Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 17/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 1-5 HT 1-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 22/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 6-0 HT 3-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 03/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 3-3 HT 2-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 20/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 5-1 HT 3-1 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 |
| 12 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
| 14 | Cologne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 4 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich win (76%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich 76%, draw 14%, RB Leipzig 10%.
How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 4.56 goals (Bayern Munich 3.28 · RB Leipzig 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.