Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 25/10, 15:30

Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Team pages: TSG Hoffenheim · Bayer Leverkusen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

TSG Hoffenheim1.69

Bayer Leverkusen1.89

1X2

34% 25% 42%

TSG Hoffenheim Draw Bayer Leverkusen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

TSG Hoffenheim 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWLLW

Bayer Leverkusen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDWWW

Head-to-head

TSG Hoffenheim 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen (6 last)

TSG Hoffenheim1-0Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen1-2TSG Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen3-1TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim1-4Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen2-1TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim2-3Bayer Leverkusen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSG Hoffenheim 1504 · Bayer Leverkusen 1610

	TSG Hoffenheim	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	33%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayer Leverkusen (rating 1504 vs 1610).
H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSG Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 7	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.04 ★
2	2.38 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.34

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 4.9% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +4’	2.63	3.80	2.38
03:14 +11’	2.88▲	3.80	2.30▼
16:14 +10’	2.88	3.75▼	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +199’	2.72	4.03	2.36
09:54 +18’	2.78▲	4.03	2.32▼
16:32 +50’	2.80▲	4.06▲	2.33▲
11:04 +16’	2.79▼	4.06	2.33
16:48 +35’	2.79	4.04▼	2.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSG Hoffenheim 2–0–4 Bayer Leverkusen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	1-0 HT 1-0	Bayer Leverkusen
23/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	1-2 HT 1-1	TSG Hoffenheim
02/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	3-1 HT 2-0	TSG Hoffenheim
14/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	1-4 HT 1-2	Bayer Leverkusen
30/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayer Leverkusen	2-1 HT 0-1	TSG Hoffenheim
04/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	2-3 HT 0-2	Bayer Leverkusen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	22	5	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	15	6	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	16	9	13
5	Mainz	6	3	1	2	14	10	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	1	2	12	11	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	16	11	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12	12	9
9	Hamburg	6	3	0	3	6	15	9
10	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	16	12	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	10	16	8
12	Cologne	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	8	10	6
14	TSG Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	11	14	6
15	Schalke	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
16	Paderborn	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	5	17	5
18	Borussia M'gladbach	6	0	0	6	8	20	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSG Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburg	2-3 L	1-1 D
VfB Stuttgart	2-1 W	1-3 L
Cologne	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSG Hoffenheim

WDWLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
10/10	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
20/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
12/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
05/09	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	10	6	L
29/08	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	7	2	L
16/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	10	L
09/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-3	4	5	D
25/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	2-1	9	6	W

Bayer Leverkusen

WWLDLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
10/10	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	4-3	3	3	W
20/09	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
12/09	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	14	2	D
05/09	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
29/08	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
16/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
02/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
25/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayer Leverkusen win (42%). Probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim 34%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%.

How many goals are expected in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model expects 3.58 goals (TSG Hoffenheim 1.69 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.