Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 25/10, 17:30
Prediction: SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Team pages: SC Freiburg · Bayern Munich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.37Total
SC Freiburg1.39
Bayern Munich2.99
1X2
SC Freiburg
Draw
Bayern Munich
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
SC Freiburg
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Bayern Munich
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SC Freiburg
0–1–5
Bayern Munich
(6 last)
- SC Freiburg2-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich6-2SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg1-2Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-0SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg2-2Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-0SC Freiburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SC Freiburg 1562 · Bayern Munich 1650
| SC Freiburg | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| Market | 14% | 16% | 69% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1562 vs 1650).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SC Freiburg | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 3.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.7 | 3.3 / 8.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Freiburg 0–1–5 Bayern Munich
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | SC Freiburg | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 22/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 6-2 HT 2-2 | SC Freiburg |
| 25/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I | SC Freiburg | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 01/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SC Freiburg |
| 01/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I | SC Freiburg | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 08/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 3-0 HT 2-0 | SC Freiburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Mainz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburg | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | Cologne | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 6 |
| 15 | Schalke | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 16 | Paderborn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 5 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| RB Leipzig | 4-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Wolfsburg | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SC Freiburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 1 | L |
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayern Munich win (69%). Probabilities: SC Freiburg 15%, draw 16%, Bayern Munich 69%.
How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model expects 4.37 goals (SC Freiburg 1.39 · Bayern Munich 2.99), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.