Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 24/10, 15:30
Prediction: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Team pages: Augsburg · Union Berlin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
Augsburg2.1
Union Berlin1.5
1X2
Augsburg
Draw
Union Berlin
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Augsburg
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Union Berlin
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Augsburg
2–2–2
Union Berlin
(6 last)
- Union Berlin4-0Augsburg
- Augsburg1-1Union Berlin
- Augsburg1-2Union Berlin
- Union Berlin0-2Augsburg
- Augsburg2-0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin1-1Augsburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Augsburg 1525 · Union Berlin 1504
| Augsburg | Draw | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Augsburg | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 1.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Augsburg 2–2–2 Union Berlin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Augsburg |
| 15/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Union Berlin |
| 17/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Union Berlin |
| 15/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Augsburg |
| 12/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Union Berlin |
| 25/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Augsburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Mainz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburg | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | Cologne | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 14 | Schalke | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 5 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Augsburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 3-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Bayern Munich | 2-2 D | 0-7 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 4-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Schalke | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Augsburg (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Augsburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Union Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Augsburg win (50%). Probabilities: Augsburg 50%, draw 24%, Union Berlin 26%.
How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Augsburg 2.1 · Union Berlin 1.5), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.