Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Mainz vs Werder Bremen

Team pages: Mainz · Werder Bremen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Mainz2.3

Werder Bremen1.39

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Mainz Draw Werder Bremen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Mainz 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWLWLW

Werder Bremen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWDWDD

Head-to-head

Mainz 1–1–4 Werder Bremen (6 last)

Werder Bremen0-2Mainz
Mainz1-1Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen1-0Mainz
Mainz1-2Werder Bremen
Mainz0-1Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen4-0Mainz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mainz 1567 · Werder Bremen 1481

	Mainz	Draw	Werder Bremen
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mainz (rating 1567 vs 1481).
H2H favours Werder Bremen: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mainz	Werder Bremen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.23 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +1’	1.67	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +534’	1.67	4.23	4.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mainz 1–1–4 Werder Bremen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-2 HT 0-1	Mainz
01/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	1-1 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen
31/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	1-0 HT 1-0	Mainz
15/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	1-2 HT 1-1	Werder Bremen
03/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	0-1 HT 0-1	Werder Bremen
02/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	4-0 HT 1-0	Mainz

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	22	5	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	15	6	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	16	9	13
5	Mainz	6	3	1	2	14	10	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	1	2	12	11	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	16	11	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12	12	9
9	Hamburg	6	3	0	3	6	15	9
10	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	16	12	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	10	16	8
12	Cologne	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	8	10	6
14	Schalke	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
15	Paderborn	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
16	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	5	17	5
17	TSG Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	9	13	3
18	Borussia M'gladbach	5	0	0	5	7	18	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mainz

LWLWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
10/10	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	3-4	4	3	L
19/09	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
12/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
06/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
29/08	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
16/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
03/05	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
25/04	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	3-4	4	3	L

Werder Bremen

DLLLLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-2	5	2	D
09/10	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
19/09	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
12/09	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/08	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
16/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
09/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
26/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mainz win (57%). Probabilities: Mainz 57%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen 21%.

How many goals are expected in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Mainz 2.3 · Werder Bremen 1.39), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.