Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M'gladbach

Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Borussia M'gladbach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

VfB Stuttgart2.53

Borussia M'gladbach1.08

1X2

68% 19% 13%

VfB Stuttgart Draw Borussia M'gladbach

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

VfB Stuttgart 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDLWLLWL

Borussia M'gladbach 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart 4–2 Borussia M'gladbach (6 last)

Borussia M'gladbach0-3VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart1-0Borussia M'gladbach
VfB Stuttgart1-2Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach1-3VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart4-0Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach3-1VfB Stuttgart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart 1568 · Borussia M'gladbach 1506

	VfB Stuttgart	Draw	Borussia M'gladbach
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	68%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VfB Stuttgart (rating 1568 vs 1506).
H2H favours VfB Stuttgart: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia M'gladbach
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.2	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.39
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.53 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +156’	1.38	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +82’	1.39	5.52	6.29
13:06 +31’	1.39	5.53▲	6.29
16:07 +39’	1.40▲	5.51▼	6.29
19:27 +28’	1.39▼	5.53▲	6.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart 4–0–2 Borussia M'gladbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	0-3 HT 0-1	VfB Stuttgart
30/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I	VfB Stuttgart	1-0 HT 0-0	Borussia M'gladbach
01/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I	VfB Stuttgart	1-2 HT 0-1	Borussia M'gladbach
14/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-3 HT 1-1	VfB Stuttgart
18/05/24 Germany Bundesliga I	VfB Stuttgart	4-0 HT 2-0	Borussia M'gladbach
14/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	3-1 HT 2-0	VfB Stuttgart

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	22	5	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	15	6	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	16	9	13
5	Mainz	6	3	1	2	14	10	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	1	2	12	11	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	16	11	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12	12	9
9	Hamburg	6	3	0	3	6	15	9
10	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	16	12	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	10	16	8
12	Cologne	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	8	10	6
14	Schalke	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
15	Paderborn	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
16	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	5	17	5
17	TSG Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	9	13	3
18	Borussia M'gladbach	5	0	0	5	7	18	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia Dortmund	0-1 L	1-0 W
TSG Hoffenheim	1-2 L	4-0 W
Cologne	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Borussia M'gladbach (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VfB Stuttgart

DDWDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
10/10	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
19/09	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
12/09	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
04/09	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	4-1	10	4	W
28/08	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-5	3	4	L
16/05	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-2	6	5	D
09/05	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-1	7	2	W
02/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-3	5	5	D
26/04	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	14	1	D

Borussia M'gladbach

DDWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/09	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-4	6	11	L
12/09	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
05/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-4	13	4	L
29/08	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
16/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	2	10	W
09/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
03/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	0	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M'gladbach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VfB Stuttgart win (68%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68%, draw 19%, Borussia M'gladbach 13%.

How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model expects 3.62 goals (VfB Stuttgart 2.53 · Borussia M'gladbach 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.