Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 16/10, 20:30

Prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne

Team pages: Eintracht Frankfurt · Cologne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Eintracht Frankfurt2.42

Cologne1.81

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Eintracht Frankfurt Draw Cologne

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Cologne 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3–2 Cologne (6 last)

Eintracht Frankfurt2-2Cologne
Cologne3-4Eintracht Frankfurt
Cologne2-0Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt1-1Cologne
Cologne3-0Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt1-1Cologne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eintracht Frankfurt 1524 · Cologne 1513

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Draw	Cologne
Our model	51%	21%	28%
Market	50%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cologne: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Cologne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.17 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +3’	1.90	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +371’	1.88	4.17	3.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3–2 Cologne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	2-2 HT 0-0	Cologne
22/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	3-4 HT 1-2	Eintracht Frankfurt
03/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	2-0 HT 0-0	Eintracht Frankfurt
03/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	1-1 HT 0-1	Cologne
12/02/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	3-0 HT 0-0	Eintracht Frankfurt
21/08/22 Germany Bundesliga I	Eintracht Frankfurt	1-1 HT 0-0	Cologne

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11	4	13
2	Bayern Munich	5	3	2	0	16	4	11
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	10
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	14	8	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	15	5	9
6	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	13	8	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10	10	8
8	Mainz	5	2	1	2	13	10	7
9	Elversberg	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	8	9	6
11	Hamburg	5	2	0	3	5	15	6
12	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	9	16	5
14	Cologne	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
15	Paderborn	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5	17	4
17	TSG Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	9	13	3
18	Borussia M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eintracht Frankfurt	Cologne
Union Berlin	3-3 D	2-2 D
VfB Stuttgart	2-2 D	1-4 L
Hamburg	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Eintracht Frankfurt (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eintracht Frankfurt

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-4	0-6	6	4	L
19/09	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
06/09	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-4	9	2	L
29/08	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-3	2	6	D
16/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	2-2	6	5	D
08/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	2-3	2	3	L
02/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-2	9	7	L
25/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-3	4	1	L

Cologne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
19/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
04/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-4	8	4	L
29/08	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
10/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
25/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/04	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eintracht Frankfurt win (50%). Probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 50%, draw 22%, Cologne 28%.

How many goals are expected in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 2.42 · Cologne 1.81), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.