Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 17/10, 15:30
Prediction: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Team pages: Union Berlin · Borussia Dortmund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Union Berlin1.26
Borussia Dortmund2.19
1X2
Union Berlin
Draw
Borussia Dortmund
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Berlin
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Borussia Dortmund
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Berlin
1–5
Borussia Dortmund
(6 last)
- Union Berlin0-3Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund3-0Union Berlin
- Borussia Dortmund6-0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin2-1Borussia Dortmund
- Union Berlin0-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund4-2Union Berlin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Berlin 1483 · Borussia Dortmund 1602
| Union Berlin | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia Dortmund (rating 1483 vs 1602).
- H2H favours Borussia Dortmund: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Berlin 1–0–5 Borussia Dortmund
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 31/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Union Berlin |
| 22/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Union Berlin |
| 05/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 02/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 07/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Union Berlin |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 |
| 12 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
| 14 | Cologne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 4 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
Borussia Dortmund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Borussia Dortmund win (57%). Probabilities: Union Berlin 20%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 57%.
How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Union Berlin 1.26 · Borussia Dortmund 2.19), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.