Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 17/10, 15:30
Prediction: Hamburg vs VfB Stuttgart
Team pages: Hamburg · VfB Stuttgart
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
Hamburg1.41
VfB Stuttgart2.07
1X2
Hamburg
Draw
VfB Stuttgart
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
VfB Stuttgart
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburg
1–5
VfB Stuttgart
(6 last)
- VfB Stuttgart4-0Hamburg
- Hamburg2-1VfB Stuttgart
- Hamburg1-3VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart3-0Hamburg
- VfB Stuttgart3-2Hamburg
- VfB Stuttgart3-2Hamburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburg 1523 · VfB Stuttgart 1570
| Hamburg | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VfB Stuttgart (rating 1523 vs 1570).
- H2H favours VfB Stuttgart: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburg | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.4 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 2.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburg 1–0–5 VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Hamburg |
| 30/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 05/06/23 Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs | Hamburg | 1-3 HT 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 01/06/23 Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs | VfB Stuttgart | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 26/08/20 Europe Friendlies | VfB Stuttgart | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Hamburg |
| 28/05/20 Germany Bundesliga II | VfB Stuttgart | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Hamburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 |
| 12 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
| 14 | Cologne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 4 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Cologne | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Werder Bremen | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: VfB Stuttgart (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
According to our model, the most likely result is an VfB Stuttgart win (52%). Probabilities: Hamburg 25%, draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart 52%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Hamburg 1.41 · VfB Stuttgart 2.07), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.