Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 01/11, 15:30

Prediction: Union Berlin vs Cologne

Team pages: Union Berlin · Cologne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Union Berlin1.54

Cologne1.54

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Union Berlin Draw Cologne

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Berlin 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLWDD

Cologne 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Union Berlin 2–2–2 Cologne (6 last)

Cologne5-0Union Berlin
Union Berlin2-2Cologne
Cologne0-1Union Berlin
Cologne3-2Union Berlin
Union Berlin2-0Cologne
Union Berlin0-0Cologne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Berlin 1517 · Cologne 1490

	Union Berlin	Draw	Cologne
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Berlin	Cologne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.64 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.70
2	2.60 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.61

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 3.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +2’	2.50	3.60	2.60
17:30 +2’	2.55▲	3.60	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +198’	2.53	3.61	2.73
08:13 +1’	2.54▲	3.58▼	2.74▲
16:18 +7’	2.55▲	3.60▲	2.75▲
19:29 +9’	2.55	3.59▼	2.76▲
11:23 +2’	2.57▲	3.59	2.74▼
23:17 +18’	2.65▲	3.62▲	2.64▼
08:18 +3’	2.63▼	3.68▲	2.62▼
16:12 +15’	2.64▲	3.68	2.61▼
19:30 +48’	2.64	3.70▲	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Berlin 2–2–2 Cologne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/26 Germany DFB Pokal	Cologne	5-0 HT 1-0	Union Berlin
02/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	2-2 HT 0-1	Cologne
20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Berlin
11/05/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	3-2 HT 1-2	Union Berlin
20/12/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	2-0 HT 0-0	Cologne
04/03/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Union Berlin	0-0 HT 0-0	Cologne

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	25	6	17
2	Borussia Dortmund	7	5	2	0	12	4	17
3	SC Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20	11	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	3	1	15	14	12
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16	13	10
8	Elversberg	7	3	1	3	12	15	10
9	Augsburg	7	2	3	2	17	13	9
10	TSG Hoffenheim	7	3	0	4	14	14	9
11	Hamburg	7	3	0	4	6	16	9
12	Cologne	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
13	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	2	2	3	10	17	8
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	10	13	6
16	Schalke	7	1	3	3	4	7	6
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6	18	6
18	Borussia M'gladbach	7	1	0	6	11	22	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Berlin	Cologne
Bayern Munich	0-7 L	1-5 L
Schalke	1-3 L	0-0 D
Eintracht Frankfurt	3-3 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cologne (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Berlin

DWWDLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
17/10	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
10/10	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/09	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	0-7	2	4	L
11/09	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
05/09	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	1	4	L
29/08	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-3	5	6	D
16/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
10/05	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/05	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	5	D

Cologne

DLLWLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
16/10	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
11/10	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
19/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
04/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-4	8	4	L
29/08	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
10/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs Cologne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Berlin win (37%). Probabilities: Union Berlin 37%, draw 26%, Cologne 37%.

How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs Cologne?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Union Berlin 1.54 · Cologne 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Cologne?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.