Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 31/10, 15:30
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · VfB Stuttgart
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Bayer Leverkusen2.14
VfB Stuttgart1.42
1X2
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
VfB Stuttgart
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayer Leverkusen
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
VfB Stuttgart
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayer Leverkusen
1–3–2
VfB Stuttgart
(6 last)
- VfB Stuttgart3-1Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen1-4VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart3-4Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen0-0VfB Stuttgart
- Bayer Leverkusen2-2VfB Stuttgart
- Bayer Leverkusen2-2VfB Stuttgart
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayer Leverkusen 1606 · VfB Stuttgart 1559
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 22% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayer Leverkusen (rating 1606 vs 1559).
- H2H favours VfB Stuttgart: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 7 | 2.7 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayer Leverkusen 1–3–2 VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 10/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-4 HT 0-4 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 16/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 3-4 HT 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 01/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 17/08/24 Germany Super Cup | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 HT 1-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 27/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 9 |
| 11 | Cologne | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Schalke | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Cologne | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayer Leverkusen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayer Leverkusen win (53%). Probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 53%, draw 22%, VfB Stuttgart 24%.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Bayer Leverkusen 2.14 · VfB Stuttgart 1.42), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.