Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 31/10, 15:30
Prediction: Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim
Team pages: Werder Bremen · TSG Hoffenheim
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
Werder Bremen1.64
TSG Hoffenheim1.89
1X2
Werder Bremen
Draw
TSG Hoffenheim
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Werder Bremen
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
TSG Hoffenheim
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Werder Bremen
1–5
TSG Hoffenheim
(6 last)
- TSG Hoffenheim1-0Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-2TSG Hoffenheim
- Werder Bremen0-3TSG Hoffenheim
- Werder Bremen0-1TSG Hoffenheim
- Werder Bremen1-3TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim3-4Werder Bremen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Werder Bremen 1499 · TSG Hoffenheim 1510
| Werder Bremen | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours TSG Hoffenheim: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Werder Bremen | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 2.1 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Werder Bremen 1–0–5 TSG Hoffenheim
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | TSG Hoffenheim | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Werder Bremen |
| 27/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 0-2 HT 0-1 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 01/08/25 Elite Club Friendlies | Werder Bremen | 0-3 HT 0-0 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 01/08/25 Elite Club Friendlies | Werder Bremen | 0-1 HT 0-1 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 16/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 1-3 HT 1-2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 29/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | TSG Hoffenheim | 3-4 HT 3-3 | Werder Bremen |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 9 |
| 11 | Cologne | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Schalke | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Cologne | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Werder Bremen (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Werder Bremen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/10 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
TSG Hoffenheim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
According to our model, the most likely result is an TSG Hoffenheim win (43%). Probabilities: Werder Bremen 33%, draw 24%, TSG Hoffenheim 43%.
How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
The model expects 3.53 goals (Werder Bremen 1.64 · TSG Hoffenheim 1.89), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.