Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 31/10, 15:30

Prediction: Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

Team pages: Augsburg · SC Freiburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Augsburg1.85

SC Freiburg2.12

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Augsburg Draw SC Freiburg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Augsburg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDLD

SC Freiburg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Augsburg 2–2–2 SC Freiburg (6 last)

Augsburg2-2SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg1-3Augsburg
Augsburg0-0SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg3-1Augsburg
Augsburg2-1SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg2-0Augsburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Augsburg 1519 · SC Freiburg 1565

	Augsburg	Draw	SC Freiburg
Our model	34%	22%	44%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Freiburg (rating 1519 vs 1565).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Augsburg	SC Freiburg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.75

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.12 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.89
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +5’	2.90	3.75	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +486’	3.06	3.81	2.17
21:03 +14’	3.12▲	3.89▲	2.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Augsburg 2–2–2 SC Freiburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	2-2 HT 0-0	SC Freiburg
23/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	1-3 HT 0-3	Augsburg
02/03/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Freiburg
19/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	3-1 HT 3-0	Augsburg
25/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Augsburg	2-1 HT 0-1	SC Freiburg
01/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I	SC Freiburg	2-0 HT 1-0	Augsburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	25	6	17
2	Borussia Dortmund	7	5	2	0	12	4	17
3	SC Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20	11	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	3	1	15	14	12
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16	13	10
8	Elversberg	7	3	1	3	12	15	10
9	Augsburg	7	2	3	2	17	13	9
10	TSG Hoffenheim	7	3	0	4	14	14	9
11	Hamburg	7	3	0	4	6	16	9
12	Cologne	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
13	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	2	2	3	10	17	8
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	10	13	6
16	Schalke	7	1	3	3	4	7	6
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6	18	6
18	Borussia M'gladbach	7	1	0	6	11	22	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Augsburg	SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen	2-3 L	4-1 W
Bayer Leverkusen	2-2 D	1-2 L
Eintracht Frankfurt	4-1 W	2-2 D
Schalke	3-0 W	2-1 W
Borussia M'gladbach	3-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Augsburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Augsburg

WWLWWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
17/10	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	1-3	3-4	12	7	L
10/10	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
19/09	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	4-1	4	2	W
30/08	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	11	2	W
16/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	4	L
09/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
02/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	2	2	W

SC Freiburg

LDLWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
11/10	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
19/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
05/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
30/08	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
16/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-1	1	1	W
10/05	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
03/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	0-4	0	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Freiburg win (43%). Probabilities: Augsburg 33%, draw 24%, SC Freiburg 43%.

How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Augsburg 1.85 · SC Freiburg 2.12), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.