Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 31/10, 18:30

Prediction: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Team pages: Bayern Munich · Borussia Dortmund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Bayern Munich2.67

Borussia Dortmund1.11

1X2

70% 17% 13%

Bayern Munich Draw Borussia Dortmund

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bayern Munich 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWDW

Borussia Dortmund 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Bayern Munich 3–2–1 Borussia Dortmund (6 last)

Borussia Dortmund1-2Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund2-3Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich2-1Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich2-2Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund1-1Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich0-2Borussia Dortmund

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1656 · Borussia Dortmund 1599

	Bayern Munich	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
Our model	70%	17%	13%
Market	70%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1656 vs 1599).
H2H favours Bayern Munich: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bayern Munich	Borussia Dortmund
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 8.3	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.02

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.02

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.34
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.61 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +3’	1.33	5.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +251’	1.34	5.56	7.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 3–2–1 Borussia Dortmund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Germany Super Cup	Borussia Dortmund	1-2 HT 0-2	Bayern Munich
28/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	2-3 HT 1-0	Bayern Munich
18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	2-1 HT 1-0	Borussia Dortmund
12/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	2-2 HT 0-0	Borussia Dortmund
30/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	1-1 HT 1-0	Bayern Munich
30/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	0-2 HT 0-1	Borussia Dortmund

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	22	5	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	15	6	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	16	9	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20	11	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	3	1	15	14	12
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16	13	10
8	Elversberg	7	3	1	3	12	15	10
9	Augsburg	7	2	3	2	17	13	9
10	Hamburg	7	3	0	4	6	16	9
11	Cologne	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
12	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	10	16	8
14	TSG Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	11	14	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	10	13	6
16	Schalke	7	1	3	3	4	7	6
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6	18	6
18	Borussia M'gladbach	7	1	0	6	11	22	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bayern Munich	Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin	7-0 W	0-0 D
VfB Stuttgart	5-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bayern Munich

WDWWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	6-1	11	1	W
10/10	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	9	3	D
18/09	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	7-0	9	4	W
13/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
05/09	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
28/08	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	5-1	9	4	W
16/05	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	3-1	5-1	5	2	W
09/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
02/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-3	13	5	D
25/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	4-3	4	3	W

Borussia Dortmund

LWWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	13	2	W
17/10	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/10	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
05/09	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
29/08	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
08/05	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
03/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich win (70%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich 70%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund 13%.

How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Bayern Munich 2.67 · Borussia Dortmund 1.11), with a 57% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.