Football · Wales Championship South · 28/08, 20:30

Result and prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely

Final result

Half time: 3-1

What we said before the match Our favourite did not win · Caerau Ely 58%

19% 23% 58%

Baglan DragonsDrawCaerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (goals) 2.9 · actual 4

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This is how the model reads today's matches, before they are played.