Football · Wales Championship South · 28/08, 20:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Caerau Ely

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Baglan Dragons1.1

Caerau Ely1.82

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Baglan Dragons Draw Caerau Ely

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDLWW

Caerau Ely 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLDWL

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 2–4 Caerau Ely (6 last)

Baglan Dragons0-5Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely2-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-1Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely2-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-0Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely3-0Baglan Dragons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1439 · Caerau Ely 1516

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	23%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caerau Ely (rating 1439 vs 1516).
H2H favours Caerau Ely: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Caerau Ely
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 1.65▼	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +8’	2.90	3.75	2.00
19:38 +6’	3.90▲	4.00▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 2–0–4 Caerau Ely

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	0-5 HT 0-2	Caerau Ely
17/09/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-1 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
11/01/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-1 HT 2-0	Caerau Ely
01/11/24 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-1 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
20/01/24 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-0 HT 0-0	Caerau Ely
06/10/23 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	3-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Caerau Ely
Llantwit Major	1-0 W	4-1 W
Pure Swansea	0-3 L	1-5 L
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Carmarthen	0-7 L	3-4 L
Cwmbran Celtic	0-0 D	0-0 D
Treowen Stars	1-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

LLDLLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
28/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
24/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
20/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
17/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	6	6	L

Caerau Ely

WWDWWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
04/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
21/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	13	1	D
14/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	5-0	2	6	W
10/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	3-0	3-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caerau Ely win (54%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 22%, draw 24%, Caerau Ely 54%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.1 · Caerau Ely 1.82), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.