Football · Wales Championship South · 28/08, 20:30

Prediction: Newport City FC vs Ynyshir Albions

Team pages: Newport City FC · Ynyshir Albions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Newport City FC1.73

Ynyshir Albions1.11

1X2

52% 25% 24%

Newport City FC Draw Ynyshir Albions

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport City FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Ynyshir Albions 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Newport City FC 0–1–1 Ynyshir Albions (2 last)

Ynyshir Albions4-0Newport City FC
Newport City FC1-1Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport City FC 1441 · Ynyshir Albions 1500

	Newport City FC	Draw	Ynyshir Albions
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ynyshir Albions (rating 1441 vs 1500).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport City FC	Ynyshir Albions
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.4	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +3’	1.73	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport City FC 0–1–1 Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	4-0 HT 2-0	Newport City FC
22/08/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport City FC	Ynyshir Albions
Carmarthen	1-2 L	0-0 D
Cardiff Draconians	1-0 W	1-0 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
28/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
09/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	13	5	L

Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L
21/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
06/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport City FC vs Ynyshir Albions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport City FC win (52%). Probabilities: Newport City FC 52%, draw 25%, Ynyshir Albions 24%.

How many goals are expected in Newport City FC vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Newport City FC 1.73 · Ynyshir Albions 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport City FC vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.