Football · Wales Championship South · 04/09, 20:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Baglan Dragons1.42

Afan Lido1.36

1X2

38% 26% 35%

Baglan Dragons Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWWWL

Afan Lido 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLWLD

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 3–2–1 Afan Lido (6 last)

Baglan Dragons3-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido1-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons1-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido0-3Baglan Dragons
Afan Lido0-2Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons0-1Afan Lido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1485 · Afan Lido 1481

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	38%	28%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Baglan Dragons: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:12 +2’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 3–2–1 Afan Lido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	3-1 HT 3-1	Afan Lido
10/10/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-1 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
08/02/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	1-1 HT 0-0	Afan Lido
04/10/24 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-3 HT 0-2	Baglan Dragons
12/01/24 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-2 HT 0-2	Baglan Dragons
21/10/23 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	0-1 HT 0-0	Afan Lido

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
4	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
5	Baglan Dragons	6	3	1	2	5	5	10
6	Treowen Stars	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	6	2	2	2	12	11	8
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Afan Lido	6	2	1	3	11	13	7
10	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
11	Caerphilly Athletic	5	2	1	2	3	7	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	6	0	2	4	6	18	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Afan Lido
Llantwit Major	1-0 W	5-0 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-0 D	2-5 L
Carmarthen	0-7 L	1-3 L
Cwmbran Celtic	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Afan Lido (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

DLLDDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
28/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
24/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	4	D

Afan Lido

WWWLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
03/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
28/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Baglan Dragons win (38%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 38%, draw 26%, Afan Lido 35%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.42 · Afan Lido 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.